Is Pakistan’s nuclear threat a bluff?

The horrors of the atomic bombs dropped by United States on Japan in 1945 shook the soul of humanity. Never had the world seen devastation of this magnitude before. Thousands perished within a few hours of the explosion and many thousands died in the following months. Those who survived suffered malnutrition and developed fatal skin diseases due to the radioactive smoke. Infrastructure of the two Japanese was severally damaged and it took years and years of rehabilitation efforts to pump in life back to these cities.

The ongoing conflict between India and Pakistan has brought the two arch rivals close to a nuclear conflict again. Pakistani administration has reiterated as always that in case matters escalate and in case if it faces existential threat, it will strike India with its nuclear arsenal. India, on the other hand, is calling it a bluff.

Dealing with a rogue state like Pakistan, which has a dwindling economy and internal instability is not easy. Pakistani army is loosing ground to Baluchistan Liberation Army and is facing causalities on that front every day. To add to its predicament, the country is encountering violent unrest from Afghan Taliban and TTP in its Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. There are reports that the people of Pakistan are already losing faith in their armed forces. Given the historical track record of Pakistan being a safe heaven for terrorism, there is always a risk of some one pressing the nuclear button.

It is evident that the incumbent chief of army staff of Pakistan has a Jihadi mindset. His hatred for Hindus is not hidden from the world, especially after his press conference in which he stated that Hindus and Muslims are different in all aspects and cannot live together. The most dangerous mindset in the world is the one which is driven by religious extremism. Those who think that they are fighting a “holy war” and will go to heaven after killing people of a particular community are the most difficult to subdue. It is almost impossible to subdue an ideology, especially if it is centered around dying for one’s religion or a believe system. Although, I strongly believe that the people of Pakistan are generally kind and generous, the Pakistani administration and its Army reflects this “Jihadi” ideology.

There is an argument from the Indian defense experts that Pakistan did not conducted nuclear strike during Kargil War and therefore, will not do it in future conflicts as well. I think there is a gap in this line of thought. Kargil war was limited to a certain geographical area and did not escalated. The Indian army was strictly ordered to not to cross the line of control at any cost. To add to it, it had been proven to the world that Pakistani army personal and the insurgents had captured the Indian peaks, therefore exposing the country in front of the international community. The scope of a nuclear exchange between the two countries was further diminished with the intervention of Mr. Bill Clinton and the U.S administration.

Things have a taken a different turn after Kargil war. The unsuccessful “Operation Parakaram” launched by the Indian army in wake of the Parliament attack in 2001 led India to adopt “Cold Start Doctrine” which states that smaller integrated units of armed forces would quickly mobilize and launch strikes into the POK or Pakistani territory thereby rendering it unnecessary for an escalation. Pakistan in turn changed its nuclear doctrine to include the use of “tactical Nuclear weapons” with less impact and lower yield aiming at the advancing Indian armed forces. Indian position on this that that any attack on Indian military with these TNW would be met with a crushing response of a full fledge nuclear strike.

Now what does Pakistan considers as an existential threat? There is no lucid answer to this but as per the defense minister of Pakistan, if the country looses vast territory or if India carries out a blockade of Pakistan either through the sea route or aerial route, it would be considered as an existential threat. He also implied that if India stops the water entering into Pakistan by abolishing the Indus Water Treaty completely, that would also be considered as an existential threat.

Given all these factors, I am of an opinion that Pakistan’s nuclear threat to India is not a bluff, especially in case of an all out war.