The year 1971 was one of the most decisive in the history of South Asia. It changed geographical, military, and political landscape of the entire region. Indian Armed forces gave a crushing blow to the Pakistani armed forces resulting in the formation of Bangladesh.
Move forward to the year 2025 and we are on the brink of another war with Pakistan. The dastardly act of violence that took place on 22nd April in the picturesque valley of Kashmir shook the entire nation. Twenty eight Innocent lives were lost and the region has once again become a boiling point between the two nuclear armed nations.
Kashmir is one of the most volatile regions in the world. Since the end of cold war, there has been no other region across the world where the danger of nuclear conflict looms larger than it does in Kashmir. India and Pakistan have fought four wars, three out of which had their nucleus point on Kashmir.
After the recent Pahalgam attack, India is adamant to bring the perpetrators to books. The country is taking a wide range of reciprocal actions from diplomatic to political to economical to bring justice to the people who lost their lives at the hands of the terrorists. Military action is also on the table and this is evident from the recent decision by the prime minister Modi to give full “operational freedom” to the Armed forces. While there is no second thought that terrorism emanating from across the border should be nipped in the bud and peace returns to the valley but can Kashmir problem really be solved through military might? Can we stop terrorism once and for all through the path of war? I strongly think that it cannot be.
India’s victory in 1971 was a very different situation. At that time, both the countries were not nuclear armed. Conventional war was the only way and it is a reality even accepted by Pakistan that it cannot overpower India in a conventional war. The situation has since then changed drastically. Today, both countries are armed to the teeth when it comes to nuclear weapons. The situation becomes more critical when considering that India is dealing with a very rouge state and a rogue army chief.
One of the things that cannot be changed is your geographical neighbor. Pakistan has already put forward its stand that any existential threat that it faces will be met with a nuclear strike. A failed state like Pakistan has nothing to loose. In case of an all out war, and in case if it faces an existential threat, it will not think twice before launching a nuclear strike against India and opening the gates of hell, not only in the South Asian region but on the whole world. The rhetoric, especially in the media, on both sides of the border is not only nonsensical but dangerous. From the Indian point of view, the country states that if Pakistan presses the nuclear button on India, it can absorb the impact owing to its vast size and depth. But when India retaliates, there will be no Pakistan. Things are more complicated than this when we contemplate it pragmatically.
Lets go back in history and consider the devastating impact of nuclear bombs dropped by United States on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan. The bombs dropped on these aforementioned cities were 15 kiloton. Today, consider the impact if only one Shaheen 3 missile with 40 kiloton yield drops on Delhi or Mumbai. The impact will be so devastating that it will take decades for India to recover from it. Can India, one of the fastest progressing countries in the world, a country with an ambition to become a superpower and a country that is increasingly playing a vital role in the global geopolitical domain, afford it? The answer is categorically no. Indian dream of becoming a superpower and the notion of “Incredible India” will be shattered. Lets leave the nuclear war aside, even a conventional war throws a country decades back, both economically and environmentally.
The solution to destroying “Pakistan’s terror ecosystem” is to destroy Pakistan diplomatically, politically and economically. Pakistan is already encountering challenges in Baluchistan and along the Afghanistan border. The country’s international credit rating is “C” and it has been termed as a “Junk” economy. Let it die its own death.
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